World Cup Draw - it's a fix (but that might help Wales.....)

I did a bit of Maths in readiness for the draw on Saturday. Looking at the European seedings, I'd imagine that the worst draw for Wales would be to get either France or Italy out of Pot 2.

However, the draw is fixed (there's a novelty), so that the Big 6 tv countries get extra games and don't go into the groups of 5. Subject to the unlikely event that Gibraltar get allowed in on appeal, there are 7 groups of 6 teams and 2 groups of 5

There are only 5 pot 1 teams that can end up in a group of 5. Germany, Netherlands, England and Spain are ruled out. France and Italy can't be in a pot of 5.

So..........
Wales have a 40% chance of being in a group of 5
Wales have a 60% chance of being in a group of 6 and if they are, a 2 in 7 chance of getting either France or Italy.
The likelihood of them avoiding both France and Italy is therefor 82.86%. Pretty good.

England, on the other hand, will be in a group of 6, so they have a 28.57% chance of drawing either Italy or France.

Here's the seedings in case you've not seen it. It'd be easy to go through and pick an optimum draw, but it's probably even easier to just say "I'll take something as pathetic as the English usually get". That'd do just fine.....................

Pot 1
Germany (2)
Belgium (3)
Netherlands (5)
Portugal (7)
Romania (
England (9)
Wales (10)
Spain (12)
Croatia (14)

Pot 2
Slovakia (15)
Austria (15)
Italy (17)
Switzerland (18)
Czech Republic (20)
France (22)
Iceland (23)
Denmark (24)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (26)

Pot 3
Ukraine (27)
Scotland (29)
Poland (30)
Hungary (31)
Sweden (33)
Albania (36)
Northern Ireland (37)
Serbia (43)
Greece (44)

Pot 4
Turkey (48)
Slovenia (49)
Israel (51)
Republic of Ireland (52)
Norway (67)
Bulgaria (68)
Faroe Islands (74)
Montenegro (81)
Estonia (82)

Pot 5
Cyprus (85)
Latvia (87)
Armenia (89)
Finland (90)
Belarus (100)
Macedonia (105)
Azerbaijan (108)
Lithuania (110)
Moldova (124)

Pot 6
Kazakhstan (142)
Luxembourg (146)
Liechtenstein (147)
Georgia (153)
Malta (158)
San Marino (192)
Andorra (202)